I concluded my internship this summer without this article being posted to my internship's blog, so was very happy to find that it went up a few days later!
One month and one day after the military coup of President Manuel Zelaya in Honduras, de facto President Roberto Micheletti expressed possible support of a compromise, according to a New York Times article on July 29th. The compromise led by Nobel Prize winner and former President of Costa Rica Óscar Arias is known as the San José Accord and through a 12-point plan would allow for Mr. Zelaya to finish his term as President with significantly limited powers.
Unfortunately, this news does not provide much cause for optimism. After two rounds of talks in Costa Rica, the chances of a successful resolution to the power struggle remain bleak. Micheletti reportedly warned Arias that he had not been able to persuade other parts of the Honduran government or leaders of the business community to go along with the proposal. The compromise would allow Zelaya to finish his term that ends in January but would push up elections by one month, and would grant him exemption from prosecution until the end of his term. None this seems acceptable to Honduran congressmen and the Supreme Court, who argue that the only way Zelaya should be allowed back into the country is to face trial for his alleged crimes against the Constitution.
On July 17th, I had the opportunity to hear Kevin Casas-Zamora, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former vice president of Costa Rica under Arias, speak about the situation and possibilities for reconciliation. His valuable perspective shed some light on why various primary and secondary actors in the situation hold stakes in maintaining the political gridlock. Micheletti’s government favors the stalemate because as time goes on, the simple fact that they have held the presidency for a month (with only four months to go before the elections) adds to their legitimacy. In addition, Micheletti’s government retains high domestic support, even while the international community has unanimously supported the reinstatement of Zelaya. On the other side, Manuel Zelaya is physically surrounded almost 24/7 by the leftist leaders and advisors of Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua who advise him against any concessions as he hops around Latin America in Hugo Chavez’s jet. On this rare occasion the United States and Venezuela’s leader agree in demanding Zelaya’s reinstatement, but Chavez has a strong interest in preventing any victory of American diplomacy and Arias was picked by the United States to lead talks. Hopefully Micheletti’s recent conversation with Arias signals that international economic and political pressure is working to reduce the stalemate, but we have yet to see any significant signs of progress.
The most tragic part about this whole crisis is that it was so close to being an incredible victory for democracy. Had Zelaya been arrested and prosecuted with due process of law, his lawful removal would have sent a strong message to other presidents currently attempting to manipulate their constitutions. Unfortunately, the Congress, Supreme Court, and military decided to “cut the middle men” in Casas’ words, instead of dealing with the months of legal proceedings that would have undoubtedly lasted through the election. One of the most interesting things that Mr. Casas talked about was the lack of a clear, formal impeachment process in Honduras, as in many other Central American countries. Asked what this crisis would suggest for future reform of this deficiency, he responded that a general feature of a presidential system is that it does not handle these kinds of political crises as well as a “no confidence” vote in a parliamentary system which can immediately spur new elections. Those flaws, he said, are exacerbated in Honduras, and that perhaps an additional requirement for a compromise would be the integration of a formal process for removal from office.
Analysis of the political crisis provides interesting suggestions for future policy, but sadly does little to change the current situation. And as time, international attention, and patience runs out, the prospects of action before the November elections are slim.
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